I gambled on this gambling stock: How cooked am I?
Doubling down on disaster — my biggest drawdown yet.
For someone who doesn’t gamble, I sure stepped in it this time.
I’ve written before about the dangers of speculation — about the dopamine hits, the illusion of control, the way a “calculated risk” slowly morphs into a coping mechanism.
And yet here I am, staring at a position that’s down 70 percent, wondering whether I’m investing… or just placing a very expensive bet.
I’ve been in leap options since last July. Long-dated calls. Plenty of time. My thesis? Rooted in growth, brand dominance and a cultural shift that felt irreversible. I told myself I wasn’t gambling. I was positioning.
It’s not going well.
The stock is down 59 percent over the past year and 35 percent in just the past month. And the only thing worse than the eyesore of being down 70 percent is the agony of knowing my pain is self-inflicted.
I could have been out last summer.
I could have exited in the fall.
But I doubled down. Again and again and again.
One contract grew to two. Two turned into six. Suddenly, $5,400 was tied up in what I still called “conviction.”
My option doesn’t expire until January. That’s the carrot I keep dangling in front of myself. There’s time. Turnarounds happen. Narratives flip. But the landscape is murkier now than it was when I entered the trade.
I could be cooked.
And so I was forced to weigh my choices:
Cut my losses and redeploy what’s left into a higher-probability setup.
Let it ride and accept the volatility.
Hedge — or even flip — the position with puts.
On earnings day, I made my decision.
It wasn’t the disciplined one.
But it paid off.